How To Predict A Draw In Football – 3 Huge Tips! [Revealed]
How to predict a draw result in a football match? We’re gonna look at some pretty big clues that a football match might just end in a draw.
This is going to be pretty interesting. Let’s, get into it. So as football traders, we are very often looking at laying the draw, but today we’re gonna be talking about back in the draw and how we can find some value in backing the draw so keep in mind.
27 percent of matches last season – and this is any English Premier League finished in a draw 27 percent of that – and the average price on a draw is actually a pretty nice prices. It’s, actually an average price of 3.
40. So I mean based on that. If you can predict a draw just as an outright bet and back it and get it right, 33 percent of the time, then you’re, going to be in some pretty good profit in the in the long long term and of course, as football Traders we don’t actually need the match to finish in a draw to be able to make a profit, which is something to keep in mind too.
So if we can identify some matches that are more likely to end in a draw than others, then we could be on our way to find in a pretty profitable strategy. So if you’re, looking for a draw result that one of the first things you profit, you should probably look for – is a match between two evenly matched teams.
Now this probably sounds pretty obvious right, but a drawer is much more likely when the two teams are pretty evenly matched, but I would definitely say I mean you’re. Probably gonna have to use your own judgment on this, because you know my view on two.
If I think two teams are evenly matched, maybe the other person across the table thinks the opposite and they think one of the teams is much stronger, so usual judgment on this. The better your judgment is the bet you’re going to do.
Obviously, but of course you can look at the league table now don’t. Look at the league table right at the start of season. Wait until there’s been at least seven or eight matches, ideally more than ten, so you can really start to judge teams based on their league position.
You know you look at two teams take him that are in the top four in the Premier League. Those teams are usually pretty evenly matched the two two teams that are both in the relegation zone. Two teams are both in mid-table.
Those are good things to look for and, of course, you could just follow the market. You could just follow the market, and here’s, a quick tip. If both teams are priced below free below odds of free those odds of two to one, then they usually are pretty evenly matched.
The markets are pretty good at this. You know the football markets are pretty efficient. It’s very hard to beat the markets just betting blindly, so you can actually look to the markets to give you a clue, and if both teams are priced below free, then they are usually pretty evenly matched and that’s.
Pretty much the markets way of telling you that hey this is almost a coin. Flip we don’t know who’s gonna win this and if anything, that can actually create some value on the draw result. But of course it’s, not just there.
If we can also find a match between two, even teams who are also low scoring teams, then we might be even closer to find an a match that is going to be a draw, basically, the lower. The goal expectancy the higher the likelihood of a draw to win a match.
You need to score goals. So if there isn’t expected to be many goals, you could be looking at a nil nil. You could be looking at a 1:1 or you know, maybe a 1 nil or a nil 1 either way, but that that fits in with that the logo lacks expectancies, so the lower the goal expectancy the higher the likelihood of the draw.
So you keep that in mind and then, if you wanted to search for a match that which could be a draw study, the recent goal scoring form of both the teams look at how much how many goals they’re, both scoring and try and Make a decision there, sometimes it’s quite obvious.
Just looking at a team’s, recent form you ‘ you’ll see that hey. You know they drew a blank in the last game, maybe the game before that they managed. One goal came before that was another blank, and just look for similar similar patterns like that, and of course, at the same time again, you could follow the market.
The markets are very, very efficient and the markets are based on statistics, so the markets would have taken there Rick the recent goals scoring form into account and if it was low recently, then you’re gonna expect that the price from the markets on Under two and a half goals is pretty low, so here’s, a tip.
If the price on under two and a half goals is one point six five or lower, then this is a match of a very low goal expectancy. Generally, you will find the price on under two and a half goals to be an average of one point.
Ninety the markets usually have it close to a 50 % chance, but if it’s priced one point six, five or lower, then that means it’s, a pretty low goal expectancy and at the same time, that can potentially put some Value on the draw result, because, like we said earlier on, the draw result, is an average of three point 40 and you very rarely see a draw result below free draw results are very, very rarely below two-to-one.
I think the lowest. You might see it in. Maybe some French leagues or the Italian leagues is maybe two point. Eighty maybe two point sixty, but it’s. Still the pre pretty good odds on the draw, especially when you’re, taking all of this into account.
A checklist that you can kick off before any any football match which you suspect is going to be a draw use the checklist. If you score 4 out of 5 or 5 out of 5, then that match is probably showing value of being a draw and it’s, probably a match which you, you know you ever have a bet on a draw, or you use a trading Strategy which is going to take advantage of the fact that you’re, expecting the match to be a draw to be pretty tight as well.
So, moving on another big thing to consider, when you’re trying to predict a draw, is cut, both teams actually be happy with a draw so before the match begins decide what a draw actually be a good result for both teams.
Now you can work this out by maybe looking at the league table scenarios, or you could think about the upcoming fixtures for both teams. Now the league table scenarios is, what is one instance I mean you could have a team there.
You know a team at a top playing a team at the bottom. If the team at a top needs a point to win the league and the team at the bottom needs a point to avoid relegation, so they both are happy with a draw.
Then I probably want to be backing the draw in that sort of scenario. We can all think back as well to that time when you’re in 2004. If you have a long long memory, you remember Denmark and Sweden. They needed a 2-2 draw for both teams to qualify from their groups low and behold that match finished.
Both teams were happy with a draw that day and somehow it ended in a 2-2 draw. not gonna make any accusations about anything. Strange going on there, but I did finish – I mean we can also think back to other scenarios.
There was a time if you going back a few years back where Manchester United needed a point to win the league. They were away Blackburn Rovers, I think Blackburn would fight and relegation. I can’t really be too sure, but you could imagine Blackburn would be happy with a point against Manchester United.
You know when they’re, fighting relegation and Manchester United. Would be happy with a point because it’s, going to make them win the league that match finished 1-1 and if you ever remember watching that match for the final 10 minutes.
I think Manchester United just kicked the ball around in their own half and did not try and score a goal. So keep that in mind, and now what can often happen when both teams are happy with a draw? Is that the first half could play out with both teams attacking and trying to win the match, but in the second half, when it starts to become inevitable that the match is drawn if it’s still level, if it’s, nil, Nil is this 1 1.
Then. Inevitably, you’re, going to find both teams start to attack less so that’s, a big pointer for those who bet in play as well. So you don’t. Obviously you don’t have to back the draw at kickoff. You can back the draw late on where it’s, a scenario where both teams are happy with a draw and you and it ‘
So actually is a draw in that, then you know the 60th minute the 70th minute. That can be a great time to back the draw you don’t necessarily have to back the draw at the start of the match. So keep that in mind and also think about the upcoming fixtures for both teams.
We saw a scenario this season, where Liverpool had a second leg in a Champions League, which you know they were prioritizing, they went away to Everton. It is a Derby Everton, probably gonnna, be happy with a draw against Liverpool there.
They were probably be happy to avoid defeat. There and Liverpool are going to be happy with a draw. They’re gonna be happy to avoid defeat because they’ve got a bigger game coming up and that match finished nil, nil.
So just keep all these things in mind and obviously, if you can add it on to what we spoke about earlier with two evenly matched teams and two low-scoring teams, then you could definitely be on your way to finding a match that is gonna end.
In a draw and on a flipside to that, you can also look for matches that neither team can actually afford to lose, and this can happen both ends of the table. It can happen in the World Cups or all that sort.
All those sorts of scenarios there and wait when neither team can really afford to lose that match is gonna result in a tight tense affair with little attacking ambition. Less attacks means less goals so, like I said, look for this in the big matches Cup finals, knockout tournaments, the business end of the football season.
Those are going to be the type matches and they’re going to be lacking in attacks. But, of course you know here’s a little tip here. It can be the flip side of the matches we just spoke about now. What can happen when neither team can afford to lose is that the beginning of the match is very, very tight.
So that could actually put more value on the halftime draw now. What can happen is that the beginning of the match is very tight, because no team in such a big match wants to be out of it early on they don’t want to go for the attack and then find themselves hit on the break And then our goal, or even two goals down it’s such a big match.
No team really wants to do that, so the first half at this sorts of games can be very, very tight, but in the final 20 minutes I mean that’s. When you know, if it’s level and in the final ten, it 20 minutes that’s when you start to see teams, try and score.
So, on the flipside to this, these sorts of matches you’ve, probably better off backing the the draw in the first half market rather than the draw overall and of course again, if you’ll bet in in play, then you can See how the match pans out and react according to that.
So if you can find a match that fits a lot of that criteria, then you are probably on your way to finding some value in favor and a draw whether that’s, just having a bet, a straight bear on the draw or favoring it In play or trade in the draw in in some way now I’m, going to quickly cover some rookie mistakes at some common rookie mistakes that happen when it comes to predicting draws.
Now there’s, gonna happen in one of two ways. So some would look at the recent draw history and then use that to predict a draw. So so some would look at the home team and then look at their recent form and say: hey.
They’ve drawn a few matches and so as the way, the away team. So this means that this match is probably likely to be a draw. Even though those other matches actually have no impact on this current match, because you know, if anything, the fact that those teams have drawn matches recently might mean that they’re going to go for the win even more because they need a win.
So it doesn’t really have an impact on that the previous match, just because they’ve drawn some matches. Recently, you’re much better off looking at the goal scoring form of the team, as mentioned earlier, if they’re, not scoring many goals recently, that’s, a big indication that this match could end in a stalemate.
But on the flip side, I also see some believed that if a team hasn’t drawn in a while, then this makes the draw more likely – and this is a gamble – gamblers fallacy and it’s similar to expecting to walk into A casino and expect him black to turn up on roulette if red has come up five times in a row.
The previous outcomes have no impact on this current match, and that is something to keep in mind when you trying to predict a draw. So anyway, thanks for reading.