There is something genuinely electric about a heavyweight knockout tie where the underdog already has receipts. When Olympiacos hosts Bayer Leverkusen at the Georgios Karaiskakis Stadium in Piraeus, this is not just another night in the UEFA Champions League playoff round. It is a rematch with unfinished business, played in front of one of Greek football’s most passionate crowds.
The backstory matters here. Olympiacos claimed a 2-0 victory over Leverkusen on Matchday 7 of the league phase at this very venue, which gives Jose Luis Mendilibar’s side both the blueprint and the belief. But can they do it again when the stakes are considerably higher?
Current Form and Momentum
Leverkusen arrive with the cleaner recent record. The German side has remained unbeaten in their last six matches in all competitions, winning five of them, and kept four clean sheets during that period. A crushing 4-0 win over FC St. Pauli last weekend was the kind of confidence-builder any manager wants ahead of a European knockout tie.
Olympiacos, by contrast, have wobbled recently. After an unbeaten run of five consecutive matches, they have gone winless in their last two games and failed to score in either of them, including a goalless draw at Levadiakos on the weekend. A team that looked like they were finding their rhythm has gone quiet at exactly the wrong time.
Still, context is everything in football. Olympiacos have won the home leg in six of their last seven European ties, and there is a well-documented phenomenon where Greek clubs transform at Karaiskakis when the continent is watching.
Head-to-Head History Favors the Hosts
The historical record at this stadium gives Olympiacos every reason for optimism. In the Champions League, three matches have been played between the two clubs, with Olympiacos winning twice and Leverkusen winning once. Both of those Greek wins came in Piraeus, including the remarkable 6-2 victory in the 2002-03 group stage.
Leverkusen’s away record against Greek opposition remains poor, with no victory since 1993 and no goals in three of the last four visits to Greek clubs. That is a striking stat that deserves more attention than it typically gets in the pre-match conversation.
Tactical Breakdown: Pressure vs. Possession
The tactical matchup is one of the most interesting elements of this tie. Mendilibar has built Olympiacos around an intense, vertical pressing game. They led the league phase for pressures in the opposition half and forced 90 high turnovers, a number that reflects just how systematically they suffocate opponents in their own half.
Leverkusen, under Kasper Hjulmand, prefer a completely different approach. They rely on sustained possession, recording one of the highest ball-in-play averages in the competition at 63.3%, using structured buildup to control the rhythm of games.
So the first leg essentially becomes a battle over tempo. If Olympiacos can create an early atmosphere of chaos with their press and transition play, the crowd will feed off it and Leverkusen will struggle. If the German side manages to slow the game down and circulate possession through midfield, particularly through Aleix Garcia who ranks among the competition leaders for line-breaking passes, the tie could shift in their favor before it even reaches Germany.
Key Players to Watch
Mehdi Taremi is the name everyone is watching on the Olympiacos side. The Iranian forward has scored 13 Champions League goals across his career and has been directly involved in four European goals this season with two goals and two assists. However, he is a doubt for this game after missing the weekend fixture, and one booking away from suspension in the second leg alongside Santiago Hezze and Dani Garcia.
Gelson Martins has quietly been Olympiacos’ most dangerous European performer. The experienced Portuguese winger scored in the crucial 2-1 win at Ajax last month and is capable of the kind of individual moment that can settle a tight tie.
For Leverkusen, Alejandro Grimaldo is the danger man. The left wing-back has scored in three of Leverkusen’s last four Champions League matches, making him a consistent goal threat from an unconventional position. Patrik Schick leads the line and provides a reliable focal point, while Malik Tillman offers movement and pressing from the half-space.
What the Analysts Are Saying
Sports Mole’s preview noted that while Leverkusen arrive with genuine momentum, three defeats from their last six away outings leave room for doubt, particularly given their struggles on previous visits to the Karaiskakis. Their tip was Olympiacos to edge a hard-fought home victory.
The analysis from Sports Betting Dime put the overall tie in perspective: “The two sides are evenly matched. Bayer Leverkusen are deserving favorites with their all-around quality, but the tie as a whole feels like a coin flip.”
That is probably the most honest framing available. Leverkusen are the better team on paper, but paper does not count for much at Karaiskakis on a European night.
Injury and Suspension Concerns
Leverkusen are without goalkeeper Mark Flekken due to a knee injury. Nathan Tella and Eliesse Ben Seghir are also sidelined with ankle and foot injuries respectively. Olympiacos are waiting on the fitness of Taremi and Francisco Ortega, both of whom missed the Levadiakos match.
Olympiacos vs Leverkusen Prediction
This is a game that lends itself to a cagey, tense opening 30 minutes before one moment breaks it open. Olympiacos will press hard from the first whistle, hoping to replicate the aggressive start that unlocked Leverkusen in January. Leverkusen will try to absorb that pressure and impose their preferred pace later in the half.
Given the home advantage, the crowd, and the fact that Olympiacos have a specific blueprint that already worked against this exact Leverkusen side this season, a narrow home win or a competitive draw feels most likely. The Greek side’s inability to score in their last two domestically is a concern, but European nights at Karaiskakis have historically brought out something different in this squad.
Prediction: Olympiacos 1-1 Bayer Leverkusen. A tight, hard-fought draw that leaves the tie perfectly poised heading to the BayArena on February 24.
