Toluca vs Monterrey
Mexico Liga MX
Toluca
Monterrey
November 8, 2026 at 02:00 · Estadio Nemesio Diez
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Toluca vs Monterrey prediction and betting tip for this Mexico Liga MX match, kicking off November 8, 2026 at 02:00 at Estadio Nemesio Diez. Our tip: Double Chance: Home or Draw (1X), 90% confidence.
Toluca vs Monterrey Preview
Toluca host Monterrey in the Mexico Liga MX (Apertura - 16) on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 02:00 WAT at Estadio Nemesio Diez in Toluca.
Toluca are 5th in the table with 24 points from 15 games (6-6-3), while Monterrey sit 9th on 21 points. Only 3 points separate them. At home Toluca have won 3 of 7; Monterrey have won 2 of 6 on the road.
Toluca have four draws and one defeat in their last 5 league games (L-D-D-D-D), averaging 1.6 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Monterrey have two wins, two draws and one defeat in their last 5 league games (D-W-W-L-D), averaging 2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded.
In their last 6 meetings Toluca have won 4, Monterrey 2, with 0 draws and an average of 3.3 goals per game. The most recent, in October 2026, finished Monterrey 2-1 Toluca.
Toluca average 2.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game this season, with 4 clean sheets and 1 game without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1. Monterrey average 1.9 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game this season, with 3 clean sheets and 3 games without scoring, usually in a 4-2-3-1.
No injuries or suspensions have been reported for either side so far.
Players to watch: F. Viñas leads Toluca's scoring with 8 goals; L. Ocampos leads Monterrey's scoring with 7 goals and 3 assists.
Bookmakers make Toluca the favourites: Toluca 1.60, draw 4.20, Monterrey 5.25 (Bet365). Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.44 and under at 2.70. Both teams to score: yes 1.50, no 2.50.
Our prediction: Toluca or draw (1X). The model gives Toluca or a draw a 90% chance, Toluca have lost only 1 of their last 5 and they sit 5th, 4 places above Monterrey.
Liga MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Toluca | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +10 | 24 |
| 9 | Monterrey | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | +5 | 21 |
Season stats
| Toluca | Monterrey | |
|---|---|---|
| Played | 15 | 14 |
| Won / Drawn / Lost | 6 / 6 / 3 | 6 / 3 / 5 |
| Goals scored (per game) | 31 (2.1) | 26 (1.9) |
| Goals conceded (per game) | 21 (1.4) | 21 (1.5) |
| Scored at home / away (per game) | 2.6 / 1.6 | 2.0 / 1.7 |
| Clean sheets | 4 | 3 |
| Failed to score | 1 | 3 |
| Longest winning run | 4 | 2 |
| Biggest win | 4-0 | 6-1 |
| Usual formation | 4-2-3-1 | 4-2-3-1 |
Top scorers
- F. Viñas 8 goals · 0 assists
- A. Vega 5 goals · 2 assists
- L. Ocampos 7 goals · 3 assists
- H. Cuypers 6 goals · 1 assist
- D. Rossi 5 goals · 3 assists
Odds (Bet365)
Odds change often — check with your bookmaker before betting.
Data: API-Football · updated 7 Nov 2026, 06:11. Please gamble responsibly (18+).
Match Analysis
Win probability
Our tip: Toluca or draw (1X) — The model gives Toluca or a draw a 90% chance, Toluca have lost only 1 of their last 5 and they sit 5th, 4 places above Monterrey.
Form (last 5)
Toluca
LDDDD
1.6 scored · 1.8 conceded per game
Monterrey
DWWLD
2.0 scored · 1.4 conceded per game
Team comparison
Head-to-head
4 Toluca wins 0 draws 2 Monterrey wins last 6 meetings
- Monterrey2 - 1Toluca Friendlies Clubs
- Toluca2 - 0Monterrey Leagues Cup
- Monterrey0 - 1Toluca Liga MX
- Toluca3 - 2Monterrey Liga MX
- Monterrey1 - 0Toluca Liga MX
- Toluca6 - 2Monterrey Liga MX
Statistics: API-Football · updated 7 Nov 2026, 06:10. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees — please gamble responsibly (18+).