PSV Eindhoven have been identified as overwhelming favourites to win the 2026/27 Eredivisie title and secure a fourth consecutive league crown, according to a major statistical projection by football analytics company Opta.
Opta’s supercomputer analysed the upcoming Eredivisie season through 10,000 simulations, with PSV finishing top in 48.5% of possible outcomes. While that remains the strongest prediction among all 18 clubs, it represents a slight drop from last season’s forecast, when the reigning champions were given a 51.5% chance of lifting the trophy.
The gap between PSV and their closest challengers is significant. Feyenoord were ranked second in Opta’s projections with an 11.8% chance of winning the title, followed by Ajax on 10.2%.
Feyenoord’s chances have fallen considerably compared with last season, when they were given a 21% probability of winning the league under former Netherlands striker Robin van Persie. Ajax, meanwhile, remain close to last year’s prediction after being handed a 10.1% chance of claiming the title.
The battle for second place appears far more competitive. Feyenoord finished runner-up in 14.5% of simulations, narrowly ahead of Ajax, who were predicted to secure second place in 13.4% of outcomes.
AZ Alkmaar and FC Twente are the only other clubs given more than a 5% chance of winning the championship, with AZ at 8.6% and Twente at 8.1%.
Opta’s model also suggests AZ could be among the leading contenders for a top-two finish, with the club most frequently predicted to end the season in second place at 13%. FC Twente’s most common projected position was third, occurring in 12.8% of simulations.
NEC, who surprised many by finishing third last season, are expected to remain competitive but are more commonly predicted to finish between fourth and fifth, with both positions carrying a 10.1% probability. Their chances of matching last year’s third-place achievement stand at 9.7%.
The race for European play-off positions is expected to involve several familiar names. Opta’s simulations suggest AZ are most likely to finish fifth, NEC sixth, FC Utrecht seventh, sc Heerenveen eighth and FC Groningen ninth.
FC Twente were not assigned one dominant finishing position, but the model gives them a 44.3% chance of securing a place in the play-offs, highlighting expectations of another strong campaign.
At the bottom of the table, the relegation battle is predicted to involve Fortuna Sittard, PEC Zwolle and the promoted trio of ADO Den Haag, Willem II and Cambuur Leeuwarden.
Willem II are the club most frequently projected to finish last, with an 18th-place finish appearing in 17.5% of simulations. Cambuur are close behind at 17.2%. Both promoted sides are also considered the strongest relegation candidates, with Willem II facing a 32% probability of dropping back to the second tier and Cambuur at 31.8%.
ADO Den Haag, Fortuna Sittard and PEC Zwolle follow at a distance, with relegation probabilities of 23.3%, 21.7% and 21.6% respectively.
The new Eredivisie season begins on Friday, August 7, with promoted Cambuur Leeuwarden hosting Excelsior in the opening fixture at 20:00 CEST.
While Opta’s projections are based on thousands of simulations rather than certainty, the numbers underline PSV’s position as the team everyone else must chase in the Netherlands’ top flight.
